Previsão de demanda no municiamento das Organizações Militares da Marinha do Brasil

Abstract

The search for greater effectiveness in decision-making processes related to public accounting has improved and given rise to new control mechanisms, for example, the preparation of Preliminary Technical Studies (ETP) for the acquisition of goods and the contracting of services and works within the scope of the direct, autarchic, and foundational federal Public Administration, as provided for in Normative Instruction No. 40, of May 22, 2020. The ETP must contain estimates of the quantities to be contracted, accompanied by the respective calculation logs, unit prices and estimates of the contract value. In this context, demand forecasting performed by statistical methods is a management tool to be used in the Brazilian Navy's (MB) food accounting management activities to achieve greater assertiveness in food purchases and consequently mitigate the risks of wasting public resources. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate how the demand forecasting process, based on statistical methods, can contribute to the planning and control of food accounting management in the MB. The research presents itself as descriptive and with a quantitative approach. The Holt-Winters method and the Box & Jenkins methodology were used to carry out the consumption predictive processes of six food stock items in seven Military Organizations (OM) of the MB. The results of this research showed that the Holt-Winters method, applied to the accumulated monthly values of the last 12 months, presented the best results regarding the elaboration of the ETP. Regardless of the chosen forecasting method, the cases analyzed show that the application of statistical methods in the food consumption forecasting offers important contributions to the planning and control activities of OM, especially in the food cost projections, in the preparation of managerial information to be registered in the Federal Government Cost Information System (SIC) and in the preparation of the Annual Contracting Plan and ETP for food procurement processes.