Novas tecnologias aplicadas em processos decisórios militares: confiabilidade, riscos e incertezas

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the main requirements that underpin the reliability of architectures of military decision-making support systems that employ new technologies. It begins by addressing the model of the human mental process and classical decision theories, advancing towards the capabilities of modern technological tools, highlighting their potential use in complex and dynamic scenarios subject to risks and uncertainties. The study presents the technological evolution driven by advancements such as Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, which allows the integration and analysis of a large volume of data, providing highly accurate, adaptive, and realtime recommendations. This represents the possibility of a revolution in military affairs through the proposition of new tactics and the disruption of strategic paradigms. From the perspective of reliable military use of new technologies in decision support systems, this research identifies and examines the main reliability requirements, known as algorithmic transparency, explainability, interoperability, robustness, redundancy, and accountability. The detailed and individualized analyses of each requirement revealed deep interdependencies and collaborative relationships among them, indicating that a simple trade-off is not an applicable solution for this type of system. The study also concludes that it is essential for military decision support systems to be developed jointly by the Armed Forces, without compromising decisionmaking power or autonomy, but rather representing an evolution of organizational culture. The main outcome of the research is the proposition of technical and strategic solutions that will contribute to guiding the development of fundamental guidelines to ensure operational reliability and algorithmic security in military decision support systems.