Análise de risco de um sistema de proteção física de uma base naval hipotética com material nuclear

Abstract

Physical protection against theft of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities is an important issue for global security. Unauthorized access to these materials by any individual poses a threat, both due to the possibility of their use in the production of nuclear weapons and due to the risk of exposure to radiological hazards. This paper presents the development of a hypothetical naval base equipped with nuclear material from ship fuel. Based on this, a Physical Protection System (PPS) project was proposed to ensure the security of the facility. The system developed was based on three fundamental premises in the field of physical security: detection, delay and response, which aim to mitigate threats against nuclear material. Subsequently, an evaluation of the PPS was carried out using the adversary sequence diagram analysis methodology, associated with a neutralization analysis, with the objective of determining the effectiveness of the proposed system. Initial results showed low effectiveness in the PPS, revealing the need for improvements in the physical barriers and the Reaction Force time of the nuclear plant. Furthermore, the method used in this study is broad and applicable to other facilities considered sensitive.