A Guerra Híbrida na Ucrânia entre 2004 e 2014: Um Estudo Comparativo entre o Protagonismo dos Estados Unidos e da Rússia na Revolução Laranja e na Anexação da Crimeia

Abstract

This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of US and Russian interventions in Ukraine, focusing on the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 annexation of Crimea, under the theories of Hybrid War and Gibridnaya Voyna. The study explores the conceptual differences between Hybrid War, developed in the West, and Gibridnaya Voyna, formulated by Russia. Hybrid War, according to Western theorists, combines conventional military tactics with irregular and non-military elements, seeking effectiveness in contemporary conflicts. Russian Hybrid War, on the other hand, adopts a broader and more indirect approach, using ideological, informational and cultural manipulation to destabilize the enemy without resorting to direct confrontations. During the Orange Revolution, the US supported the Ukrainian opposition through NGOs and diplomacy, while Russia used propaganda and support for pro-Russian leaders, employing Gibridnaya Voyna tactics to maintain its influence. In its annexation of Crimea, Russia exemplified Gibridnaya Voyna by manipulating narratives and carrying out the annexation without direct confrontation, using information campaigns and auxiliary forces. The conclusion highlights that, although the narratives are distinct, the ways in which both states act have notable similarities. These actions, when contrasted with the theoretical evolution of hybrid warfare, reflect the political singularities and antagonistic strategic interests. Furthermore, hybrid warfare is a highly adaptable and increasingly politicized concept, capable of being shaped to meet strategic objectives. Understanding these nuances is essential for formulating effective defense policies and preparing for future hybrid threats.