Estratégia naval em mares limitados : potenciais aprendizados da Guerra Rússia – Ucrânia para o Brasil

Abstract

The objective of this research was to describe the Russia – Ukraine conflict, between February 24, 2022 and April 1st, 2024, evaluating the strategies, operations and innovations observed in the naval environment, seeking, whenever possible, lessons to be learned for Brazil. The study was guided by the theoretical framework proposed by Milan Vego, which addresses strategies and operations in narrow seas. The narrow seas and different types of strategy were defined from his theoretical perspective. They were, then, compared with the terms adopted by the Brazilian Ministry of Defense and Navy. The operational factors of space, time and force and the strategies declared in high-level documents by both contenders were also discussed. The study of the conflict made it possible to confirm the strategic objectives of both countries by observing the operations executed. Russia's ability to control the sea at the beginning of the conflict was also clear by destroying or capturing most of the small Ukrainian Navy in the first days of combat. Exercising sea control allowed Russia to carry out amphibious operations and block Ukrainian merchant traffic, risking a global food crisis. On the other hand, the economic sanctions applied against Russia tried to affect its economy, but with little success. The following reflections seem to be useful for Brazil. The importance of securitizing Defense by presenting the threats to its maritime traffic. Brazil, as a global trader, is dependent on foreign trade and it can be affected by instabilities in other parts of the world. Furthermore, the creation of a National Joint Operational Command was proposed, aiming to avoid the problems identified in Russian operations during the conflict. It was also suggested to improve the terminology management procedures used by Brazil. Additionally, actions were presented to enhance learning and innovation in combat. The idea was complemented with observations on the development of Remotely Piloted Systems, Artificial Intelligence, as well as on the resilience of satellite communications and position, navigation and time systems. Finally, the importance of the Merchant Marine was discussed as well.